NHL · Blog · Heater Stats

October 1, 2026 · 8 min read · NHL, Props, ResearchNHL shots on goal props — who cleared 2.5 and 3.5 most often in 2025-26How often every regular NHL shooter cleared 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 shots on goal last season, why the average misleads, and what opponent and venue add.

September 26, 2026 · 9 min read · NHL, Research, FantasyIs the NHL sophomore slump real? 18 rookie classes say mostly noWe checked every NHL rookie-to-sophomore season since 2007-08. Scoring goes up in year two for most players — but one specific group really does collapse.

September 23, 2026 · 10 min read · NHL, Fantasy, ResearchThe power play is the most underpriced thing on your draft boardPower-play minutes are worth about 9.2 points a season each, measured on real NHL results — here is who has them in 2026-27 and who is one promotion away.

September 23, 2026 · 9 min read · NHL, Schedule, ResearchHow far every NHL team travels in 2026-27, and why it does not matterAll 32 NHL teams ranked by miles traveled in 2026-27, from SEA at 56,775 down to PIT — plus what two seasons of road games say about whether it costs anything.

September 21, 2026 · 11 min read · NHL, Schedule, Fantasy, ModelNHL strength of schedule 2026-27: all 32 teams rankedAll 32 NHL teams ranked by 2026-27 strength of schedule, measured in expected goals — plus why the gap is far smaller than your fantasy draft board thinks.

September 21, 2026 · 3 min read · NHL, Schedule, FantasyHow many games in the 2026-27 NHL season, and where the two extra ones wentEach team plays 84 games in 2026-27, up from 82 — here are the key dates, the full matchup structure counted off the schedule, and what the longer season changes for fantasy

September 15, 2026 · 7 min read · NHL, Fantasy, ResearchShooting luck: who finished above and below expected in 2025-26The fifteen skaters who beat their chances by the most last season and the fifteen who fell furthest short, which of them have ever done it before, and what the projection does about it

September 13, 2026 · 7 min read · NHL, Fantasy, ResearchThe 2026-27 fantasy hockey draft kitEvery board, tier and caveat from our 2026-27 projections in one place — the forward, defense, goalie and category boards, the schedule, and how wrong the model was last season

September 12, 2026 · 7 min read · NHL, Fantasy, ResearchCategory leagues: shots, hits, blocks and faceoffs in the 2026-27 projectionsHow far each category reorders the board away from points, the skaters who fill more than one column, and why the hits and blocks boards share almost nobody with the points top 100

September 12, 2026 · 6 min read · NHL, Fantasy, Research, ScheduleThe 84-game season: games per week, off-nights and back-to-backsWhat the 84-game schedule does to a fantasy week — where the two extra games actually went, which nights are off-nights, and the teams whose weeks come in lumps

September 12, 2026 · 3 min read · NHL, Fantasy, ResearchDefensemen: points, shots and blocks in the 2026-27 projectionsThe projected top 25 defensemen for 2026-27, how fast the points fall off after the first seven, and the blocks and power-play boards that reorder the position in category leagues

September 12, 2026 · 7 min read · NHL, Fantasy, Research, GoaliesGoalies: projected starts, tandem splits and last season's GSAxThe projected top 15 goalies for 2026-27, how every team actually split its starts last season, and goals saved above expected by shot danger for the best and worst of 2025-26

September 11, 2026 · 6 min read · NHL, Fantasy, ResearchWho the projection trusts less than last season, and who it trusts moreThe forwards whose projected scoring rate moves furthest from what they did in 2025-26, in both directions, and the three reasons the model has for each

September 10, 2026 · 4 min read · NHL, Fantasy, ResearchForwards: where the 2026-27 projections put centers and wingersThe projected top 25 centers and wingers for 2026-27, where the real gaps are, how deep each position runs, and the forwards who matter in category leagues but not in points leagues

September 8, 2026 · 10 min read · NHL, Model, ResearchHow Heater xG worksEvery expected-goals number on the site is our own model. Here are the inputs, what each one is worth, and how we check it against goals that actually went in.

September 8, 2026 · 7 min read · NHL, Fantasy, Research, ModelHow the fantasy projection works, and how wrong it was last yearThe full method behind the 2026-27 fantasy projections, and the backtest by category — where the model beats carrying last season forward, and where it doesn't