Alex DeBrincat cleared 2.5 shots on goal in 76% of his games in 2025-26, the best rate in the league among skaters with 60+ games. He did it averaging 3.50 shots a night. Nathan MacKinnon averaged 4.38 — almost a full shot more — and cleared 2.5 slightly less often, 75%.
That gap is the point of this post. A shots-on-goal prop is a yes-or-no question at one number, and a player's average answers a different question. Below: the hit-rate boards at every common line, the defensemen worth knowing at 1.5, which teams give up the most shots, and how much the first ten games of a season should move you. Everything is from 2025-26 regular-season box scores, 1,312 games, counting only games a player actually took a shift in.
Which NHL players clear 2.5 shots on goal most often?
The top 15 by how often they cleared 2.5 (three or more shots on goal), with 60 or more games played:
Fifteen skaters cleared 2.5 in roughly two of every three games or better. For context, the average forward got to three shots in 25% of his games, and the average defenseman in 15%.
Read across the row, not down one column. Nathan MacKinnon is second at 2.5 but first by a distance at 3.5 (65%) and 4.5 (44%); Jack Hughes was the next-best at 4.5, 38%. The line you are looking at decides which list matters.
Why does a shot average mislead on a prop?
Because an average counts how many shots, and a prop counts how many games. One nine-shot night lifts a season average as much as three extra shots spread across three games, but it only clears the line once.
Two pairs from last season make it concrete:
- Dylan Guenther averaged 3.06 shots and cleared 2.5 in 65% of his games. Seth Jarvis averaged more, 3.14, and cleared it in 52%. Same average, a 13-point gap in how often the over came in.
- Alex DeBrincat and Nathan MacKinnon cleared 2.5 at nearly the same rate (76% and 75%) on averages 0.88 shots apart. His extra volume shows up in his big nights, which is why he owns the 3.5 and 4.5 columns.
The most consistent of the 67 skaters who averaged 2.5+ shots was Alex Ovechkin. He cleared 1.5 in 87% of his games and 4.5 in only 11% — almost every night was two, three or four shots. A player like that is close to a sure thing at a low line and close to hopeless at a high one, and his 2.96 average tells you neither.
The prop hit-rates tool shows this distribution for any player, at any line, which is the version of this table worth checking on game day.
Which defensemen clear 1.5 shots on goal most often?
Defensemen shot lines are often set at 1.5 rather than 2.5, so here is that board, with 60+ games:
Zach Werenski was in a class of his own: 89% at 1.5, and his 65% at 2.5 put him on the main board above. Cale Makar shows how fast a rate falls one shot higher: fourth at 1.5 (79%), 43% at 2.5.
Which NHL teams allow the most shots on goal?
Shots on goal allowed per game in 2025-26, all 82 games for every team. The eight most generous:
And the eight stingiest:
The spread is wide: the Toronto Maple Leafs gave up 32.4 shots on goal a night, the Carolina Hurricanes 23.9. That is about 8.5 shots a game the opposing team has to share out.
How much do the opponent and home ice move a shots prop?
Take every skater who averaged 2.5+ shots over 60+ games last season (67 players) and split their games by who they played:
The same group of shooters cleared 2.5 in 60% of games against the open teams and 50% against the tight ones, a 10-point swing. One honest caveat: the teams were ranked on the same season the rates are measured on, so this is the size of the effect looking back, and a team's shot suppression shifts from one season to the next.
Home ice is smaller but real. Those shooters cleared 2.5 in 58% of home games and 53% on the road (3.08 shots a game against 2.85). Across every skater, home players averaged 1.57 shots on goal to 1.51 for visitors.
Every team page has a shots-allowed map (the team names in the tables above link there), and the matchup tool lines a player up against tonight's opponent.
How much should you trust early-season shot numbers?
Less than last season. We took 88 players who cleared 2.5 in at least 40% of their games the year before, and asked which number better predicted their 2.5 rate over the rest of 2025-26: their first 10 games, or their whole 2024-25.
- Their first 10 games missed the rest-of-season rate by 13.5 points on average, and were off by 20 points or more for 22% of the players.
- Last season missed by 8.5 points, and was off by 20 or more for 6%.
Ten games is a small sample, and it shows. Rickard Rakell cleared 2.5 in 20% of his first 10 games and 56% the rest of the way — a cold start that had nothing to do with the season he actually had. The 2026-27 league schedule is eight games in as of this writing, so for now last season's boards above are the better guide, with role changes (new team, new line, power-play unit) the main reason to move off them.
Frequently asked questions
What does over 2.5 shots on goal mean?
The player needs three or more shots on goal for the over to win. A shot on goal is a shot the goalie saves or that goes in; blocked shots and shots that miss the net do not count.
Who cleared 2.5 shots on goal most often in 2025-26?
Alex DeBrincat, in 76% of his 82 games, among skaters with 60+ games. Nathan MacKinnon (75%) and Brady Tkachuk (75%) were next.
Who cleared 3.5 shots on goal most often?
Nathan MacKinnon, in 65% of his games, and he also led at 4.5 (44%).
How often does an average NHL player get three shots on goal?
In 2025-26, the average forward had three or more in 25% of his games and the average defenseman in 15%. Right wings were the most frequent at 29%.
Which NHL team allowed the most shots on goal per game?
The Toronto Maple Leafs, at 32.4 per game in 2025-26. The Carolina Hurricanes allowed the fewest, 23.9.
Are early-season shot totals a good guide for props?
Not on their own. For established shooters, a player's first 10 games missed his rest-of-season 2.5 rate by 13.5 points on average, against 8.5 for his full previous season.
Where these numbers come from
Every 2025-26 regular-season box score (and 2024-25 for the early-season test), counting a game only when the player was on the ice. Hit rates are at fixed thresholds, not posted lines: they say how often something happened, not whether a price was worth taking, and they do not know about a trade, a promotion or an injury that changed a player's role since.
If shot volume is your angle, goals vs expected covers which shooters converted above their chances, and how Heater xG works explains the shot model behind it. The player search has every skater's game log.